Conjoint based forecasting

Conjoint is a survey-based method heavily used by managers to obtain consumer input that guides new-product decisions. The commercial popularity of the method suggests that conjoint results improve management decisions. Doctors are shown 'drug' profile are requested chose among the different profiles. Their choices are tabulated and computed by trading-off product's attributes.

The model assumes that the preference ("likeability") for a product is the weighted sum of how well the product performs ("scores") on a number of attributes. So, for pharmaceuticals, a doctor's preference for a product would be the product's score on product attributes of, say, efficacy, safety, ease of administration and price, with each score given a weight according to how important the attribute is.

The key drawback for conjoint modelling is that it assumes 100% awareness of product's attributes among its target population and it calculates market share 'one snap short' in time. The other draw backs are it time consuming exercise and expensive.

Market research based forecasting We at Lifescience Dynamics have developed a few proprietary market research based tools to calculate market penetration for new drugs. Depending on the flexibility of product profile a number of techniques can used based on acceptable error bars, time and budget.

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